There has been lot of hue and cry upon inclusion of Babu Singh Kushwaha in BJP after he was removed from the Family Welfare Ministry in UP by BSP Supremo ,Mayawati. The Congress made such a hue and cry that within the BJP, there were voice of dissent against his induction and finally Kushwaha was forced to write to BJP President to suspend his party membership. Though, his membership has been suspended; he has vowed to work for the BJP and has urged his caste, Kushwaha (Koeri) to vote for the BJP. His induction was handiwork of senior BJP leader, Vinat Katiyar ,who belongs to Kurmi caste . Kurmi and Koeri are considered twin castes among OBC  and Katiyar might have hoped to consolidate his party position by mobilizing the two caste voters in this complex caste-loyalty based UP elections. The Congress is worried as they are at crossroad in UP. Apart from allying with Ajit Singh, who has merely few pocket of support in Jat dominated areas , Congress is still not successful in denting either Muslim voters of the SP or the dalit voters of the BSP. Congress also realizes that alliance with Ajit Singh will come handy for the Jat leader only whose caste is concentrated in western UP, but in no way going to add voters to Congress candidates. Jats are merely 1.7% in UP population and most of them concentrated in fewer districts. Congress could read the sign of coming revival of BJP in UP if  OBC leaders like Kushwaha, Avadhesh Kumar Verma, Vinay Katiyar, Uma Bharati can build a core constituency of non-Yadav OBC voters for the BJP. The Congress Party therefore fired every salvo in its stock ,even in comical manner by pitting P.L. Punia who turned approver in a corruption case against Mayawati, to earn a Lok Sabha seat from the Congress  and a Cabinet status at the Centre. The BJP seems to be gaining ground with  fresh infusion of dynamism in the party after pain staking work undertaken by fire-brand , honest woman leader, Uma Bharati. Brahmins have once again inclined towards the BJP . Brahmins who are 13% of the population in UP holds the key. If Brahmin and non-Yadav  OBC core constituency is built by the BJP, it will be in a position to form even the next government. In a tetrangular contest  and in many places more than that , even 26-27 % vote share will decide a winner. Even in 2007, when Congress and BJP were out of steam and the BSP won a single  majority, it polled merely 30.43%  share of votes polled and bagged 206 seats. The SP bagged 97 seats with 25.43% of votes. A voting share of 27% seems optimum in this election to decide the highest winning party. The BJP realizes that 25% non-Muslim, non-Yadav OBC and 13% Brahmins can fetch that much vote. It is why the BJP has put up Vajpayeeji as their mascot once again to attract Brahmin voters and bringing as many OBC leaders as possible to carve this wining combination.

Caste/Religion in UP (calculated form 2001 Census)

Scheduled Caste-Sub-composition
(total 66 castes)

OBC –Sub-composition
(Total=79 castes)

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